HARGEISA — The Horn of Africa is witnessing an unexpected geopolitical shift, unsettling a relationship that had been a cornerstone of regional stability for over two decades.
Djibouti and Somaliland had long enjoyed a mutually beneficial alliance, underpinned by shared economic interests and diplomatic support.
However, recent developments have signaled a dramatic shift, threatening to unravel this historically strong bond.
At the heart of this shift is Somaliland leader Muse Bihi’s decision to deepen ties with Ethiopia, culminating in a controversial port deal. The agreement, which has sparked a major diplomatic row with Somalia—who condemned it as a “blatant violation” of its sovereignty—grants landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea.
The move is seen by some as a strategic masterstroke and by others as a provocative gambit.
To understand its implications, one must delve into the complex web of regional politics and alliances that define the Horn of Africa.
A Historical Partnership
The Djibouti-Somaliland relationship has been marked by economic interdependence and a shared vision for regional progress. Djibouti, strategically located on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, has been a critical gateway for Somaliland’s trade, providing vital access to global markets.
In return, Somaliland offered Djibouti a reliable partner in a volatile region.
This symbiotic relationship continued smoothly until early this year when rumors began circulating about Hargeisa’s potential pivot towards Ethiopia.
Djibouti officials initially dismissed the reports, maintaining trust in Bihi’s leadership.
However, Bihi’s unpredictability soon became apparent.
Following a meeting with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh, Bihi who was initially scheduled to return to Hargeisa has unexpectedly diverted to Addis Ababa.
There, he was seen alongside Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, announcing a port deal that grants Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via Somaliland’s Zeila Port.
In return, Addis Ababa has implicitly promised to recognize Somaliland an independent state.
Djibouti’s Reaction
Djibouti’s response has been one of cautious dismay. The government, long accustomed to its role as Ethiopia’s primary maritime outlet, now faces the prospect of diminished influence and revenue.
The port deal is seen not merely as an economic maneuver but as a geopolitical realignment with far-reaching consequences.
Somaliland’s lack of international recognition complicates the situation, as it lacks the legal standing to enter into such agreements, a point highlighted by Somalia’s condemnation of the deal as “illegal.”
This legal ambiguity has provided Djibouti with some respite, reducing anxiety over the potential of the unsettling agreement.
Diplomatic efforts have since intensified, with Djibouti seeking to reaffirm its strategic importance by courting other international partners and emphasizing its infrastructural advantages, such as the newly expanded Doraleh Container Terminal.
Despite these efforts, the shadow of the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal looms large, casting uncertainty on Djibouti’s dominance.
Experts note that the ramifications of this strategic shift extend beyond the immediate players. The evolving dynamics between Djibouti, Somaliland, and Ethiopia could herald a new era of competition and cooperation in the Horn of Africa. The region, already a theater for international power plays, now faces additional layers of complexity.
Observers suggest that this shift could inspire other regional actors to reevaluate their alliances and strategic priorities.
The interplay of economic interests and political maneuvers will undoubtedly shape the region’s future, influencing everything from trade routes to security arrangements.
Djibouti’s Strategic Countermeasures
In response to the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal, Djibouti has embarked on a strategic campaign to counteract the recent geopolitical tremors.
Strengthening ties with the Somali government and seeking alliances with Somaliland’s growing opposition groups have added a new layer of complexity to the Horn of Africa’s political landscape.
Djibouti has also launched a major diplomatic offensive. Renewing and strengthening bilateral relations with Somalia aims to bolster economic and political ties, ensuring Djibouti remains a pivotal player in regional trade dynamics.
Frequent high-level meetings between President Guelleh and President Mohamud have become more frequent in recent months, emphasizing cooperative economic projects and security collaborations.
Additionally, Djibouti’s outreach to opposition leaders within Somaliland represents a calculated maneuver to destabilize Bihi’s administration.
By courting figures who challenge Bihi’s extended rule and tapping into discontent fueled by military setbacks in the eastern Sool region, Djibouti is playing a subtle yet potent game of political chess.
Meanwhile, Somaliland already feels the intense pressure coming from its influential neighbor..
Unsettled by these developments, President Bihi, whose leadership is under scrutiny due to a controversial term extension and significant military losses, has accused Djibouti of supporting a nascent separatist movement in Somaliland’s Awdal region.
Bihi claims this alleged support aims to undermine Somaliland’s territorial integrity.
“Awdal’s destabilization poses a serious threat to the unity of Somaliland,” Bihi declared recently. “We cannot ignore the signs of external interference aimed at exploiting our internal challenges.”
Djibouti has vehemently denied these accusations, with a government minister labeling Bihi’s claims as “baseless.” Djibouti maintains its commitment to regional stability and peace.
The High Stakes of Awdal
Losing Awdal would compound Somaliland’s existing woes. Known for its strategic location and economic potential, Awdal is critical for maintaining Somaliland’s territorial cohesion and economic prospects. Its secession would weaken Somaliland politically and threaten its economic stability by disrupting key trade routes and infrastructure projects.
Analysts see Djibouti’s alleged involvement in Somaliland’s internal politics as a multifaceted strategy.
By engaging with Somaliland’s opposition and allegedly supporting separatist sentiments in Awdal, Djibouti aims to diversify alliances, exert pressure on Somaliland, and maintain regional influence through proactive diplomacy and strategic partnerships.
Note: This article is the first in a series analyzing the wide range of issues related to this matter.
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