MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia stands at a critical juncture as African Union forces prepare for a planned withdrawal from the nation, raising concerns about the country’s ability to manage its own security.
The multinational force, which has already handed over a number of military bases to the Somali army amidst ongoing troop drawdowns, is expected to complete the withdrawal later this year.
However, this transition has sparked growing apprehension about the absence of a cohesive plan for Somalia to take on its security responsibilities.
Since the Uganda-led African Union peacekeeping mission, initially known as AMISOM, deployed to Mogadishu at the height of the al-Shabab insurgency in 2007, Somalia has undergone a profound transformation.
The mission, which has seen the loss of thousands of soldiers, succeeded in liberating large swathes of territory, including the capital, from al-Shabab control, catalyzing significant political, social, and economic changes within the country.
Their presence has also been instrumental in maintaining a semblance of stability in a country long plagued by violence and political turmoil.
Yet, as the countdown to the drawdown begins, uncertainty looms large.
Despite these gains, the impending withdrawal of African Union forces raises critical questions about Somalia’s future.
Experts and officials are voicing concerns over Somalia’s preparedness to manage its security affairs independently.
“The transition plan remains fragmented, and there are significant gaps in coordination between the national forces and local militias,” said Abdi Jama, a security analyst based in Mogadishu.
“Without a robust and unified strategy, the risk of instability is very real.”
The Somali federal government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has asserted its commitment to strengthening the national army and police forces.
Despite these assurances, the pace of progress has been slow, hampered by limited resources and internal political divisions.
The impending departure of foreign troops has also raised concerns about the sustainability of hard-won gains.
According to Mohamed Ali, a geopolitical analyst specializing in the East and Horn of Africa, the withdrawal of ATMIS forces represents a significant turning point for Somalia, with profound implications for regional security and stability.
“The absence of international or regional military support could embolden insurgent groups and undermine efforts to establish lasting peace,” he noted.
Moreover, the looming departure of ATMIS forces has sparked fears and scenarios reminiscent of the situation in Afghanistan, where the withdrawal of foreign troops paved the way for the resurgence of the Taliban, ultimately leading to the fall of Afghanistan into the group’s hands.
In the case of Somalia, a nation already struggling with the menace of al-Shabab faces the daunting prospect of a security void that could embolden the extremist group to further exploit the country’s vulnerabilities.
For the impoverished nation, a similar trajectory could have severe implications not just domestically, but also for the broader Horn of Africa region, potentially destabilizing neighboring countries and heightening regional insecurity.
In light of these growing concerns, Abdullahi Hashi, a foreign policy expert, emphasized the need for continued international engagement in Somalia’s reconstruction and development.
“While the withdrawal of foreign troops may mark the end of one chapter, it also underscores the beginning of a new phase in Somalia’s journey towards self-reliance and prosperity,” he stated in a recent interview.
Fragile Transition
As the African Union peacekeeping mission prepares to hand over security responsibilities, the underlying challenges and potential repercussions are significant.
Across the country, security concerns loom large as the Somali government, backed by African Union Forces and international allies, struggles to contain the al-Shabab insurgency.
Despite years of military engagement and efforts to bolster Somali security forces, the terrorist group maintains a formidable presence in various parts of the country, raising fears of intensified violence and instability in the wake of the foreign troop withdrawal.
The uncertain security situation is further compounded by political divisions and governance challenges within Somalia.
The country’s fragile democratic institutions face mounting pressure as rival political and regional factions vie for power and influence, casting doubt on the prospects for a peaceful and inclusive transition.
Despite these challenges, the Somali government remains steadfast in its commitment to the withdrawal of foreign troops, citing sovereignty and national pride as primary reasons for its stance.
Somali officials argue that the presence of foreign forces undermines the country’s sovereignty and perpetuates a narrative of dependence, hindering efforts to establish self-reliance and autonomy.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reiterated the government’s position in a recent address, emphasizing the need for Somali security forces to take full responsibility for safeguarding the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
However, critics argue that the government’s insistence on immediate withdrawal, without adequate preparations and safeguards in place, risks destabilizing the country and jeopardizing hard-won gains.
“While asserting sovereignty is a legitimate concern, the reality on the ground suggests that the Somali security forces are ill-equipped to handle the evolving threats posed by terrorist groups,” said Abdourahman Nor, a security analyst specializing in Somalia.
Hassan Moumin, a regional expert, echoed similar sentiments,
“The Somali government’s rush to assert sovereignty at the expense of security could backfire, leading to increased instability and violence.”
Note: This article is the first in a series that dissects and analyzes the ongoing security transitions in Somalia
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