Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s federal government is pushing forward with a contentious plan to amend the constitution, transitioning from a parliamentary system to a presidential model.
The reforms, spearheaded by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, would ostensibly eliminate the role of prime minister, replacing it with a vice president, and introduce direct elections based on universal suffrage.
While government officials tout the move as a solution to chronic inefficiency and political gridlock, critics warn it could destabilize Somalia’s fragile federal system and heighten tensions with semi-autonomous regional states, including Puntland and Jubaland.
Meanwhile, President Mohamud has described the proposed reforms as essential to improving governance in a country still recovering from decades of conflict.
“A presidential system offers clarity and accountability in leadership,” said a government official on condition of anonymity, citing the need for centralized decision-making to counter persistent security and economic challenges.
The current parliamentary system has often been criticized for being slow and prone to infighting among lawmakers, many of whom are elected indirectly through a clan-based system.
By advocating for a presidential model, Mohamud’s administration aims to streamline the decision-making process and create what it sees as a stronger, more effective central government.
But, opponents argue that such a shift risks undermining the autonomy of Somalia’s federal member states.
“This proposal could centralize power in Mogadishu at the expense of the regions,” said Abdullahi Abukar, a constitutional expert based in Nairobi.
“For federal states, the fear is that this will erode the checks and balances that have been painstakingly established.”
Electoral Push Fuels Regional Tensions
Simultaneously, Mohamud is championing a transition to direct elections, marking a departure from Somalia’s clan-based, indirect electoral system.
The reforms aim to give ordinary citizens a direct say in choosing their leaders, a change widely seen as a step toward greater democratization.
Yet, resistance from regional states underscores the challenges of imposing a one-size-fits-all electoral framework.
Jubaland, led by President Ahmed Madobe, has defied Mr. Mohamud’s electoral plan and held its own indirect elections, including a parliamentary speakership vote, and is preparing for a presidential election.
Puntland has also voiced skepticism, with officials insisting that the president is seeking to central power and federal overreach threatens their hard-won autonomy.
“Regional states see direct elections as a Trojan horse for centralization,” said Ahmed Elmi, a political analyst in Mogadishu.
“For Jubaland and Puntland, this is less about elections and more about preserving their autonomy against attempts by the federal government to centralize the authority.”
Historical Tensions Resurface
Somalia’s federalism, adopted in 2004, was designed to address the country’s clan divisions by granting regions greater autonomy.
However, the system has been marked by disputes over power-sharing, resource allocation, and the delineation of responsibilities between Mogadishu and the regions.
Past conflicts have also left a legacy of mistrust.
In Jubaland, memories of clashes over Kismayo’s control in 2013 remain vivid. Similarly, Puntland’s pushback is rooted in concerns that reforms could unravel the federal compact and rekindle clan-based rivalries.
Meanwhile, the timing of these debates is also significant.
Somalia is battling a persistent insurgency by the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and economic instability.
For some, the reform efforts risk diverting attention from these urgent priorities.
Furthermore, Somalia’s constitutional overhaul and electoral reforms are being closely monitored by international stakeholders, including the United Nations, African Union, and Western donors, who have long supported the country’s federal system.
Diplomatic sources suggest cautious support for the reforms but emphasize the need for inclusive dialogue.
“Somalia’s federal system is a cornerstone of its post-conflict recovery,” said one Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Reforms are necessary, but they must be conducted in a way that strengthens, not weakens, the union.”
The United States and European Union, both major financial backers of Somalia’s stabilization efforts, have urged the government to engage regional leaders in constructive discussions.
For President Mohamud, the proposed reforms represent a high-stakes gamble. Success would position him as the leader who brought Somalia closer to democracy and stability.
Failure, however, could deepen political divisions and risk exacerbating conflict with regional states.
“Somalia is at a critical juncture,” said Fatuma Hirsi, a regional analyst.
“The challenge is how to implement reforms in a way that doesn’t alienate key stakeholders or destabilize an already fragile federal system.”
With presidential elections in Jubaland looming and Puntland signaling resistance, the federal government’s path to consensus remains fraught.
For many Somalis, however, the focus remains on everyday concerns, from insecurity to economic hardship.
“We don’t care who is in power,” said Halima Abdullahi, a resident of Mogadishu.
“We just want leaders to solve our problems and bring peace to this country.”
As President Mohamud pushes forward with his reform agenda, he faces an uphill battle to win over skeptical regional leaders and navigate a deeply fragmented political landscape.
Analysts warn that failure to build broad-based consensus could backfire, risking further alienation of regional states and potentially reigniting clan-based rivalries.
“This is a test of Somalia’s ability to manage its transition from a post-conflict state to a functioning democracy,” observed Fatima Yussuf.
“The stakes are high, and the choices made in the coming months will shape Somalia’s political trajectory for years to come.”
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