Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s fragile federal structure faced a new test on Monday as the Federal Government deployed troops to Jubaland, a semi-autonomous region in the south, in a bold move that threatens to deepen the already fractious relationship between Mogadishu and regional administrations.
Two military aircraft, reportedly carrying dozens of soldiers and logistical supplies, landed near Raskamboni, a strategic town along the coast close to Jubaland’s interim capital of Kismayo.
According to local sources, the deployment marks a significant escalation in tensions between the federal government and Jubaland’s administration, which has long resisted control from Mogadishu.
The troop movements coincide with Jubaland’s presidential election, where Ahmed Madobe, the region’s incumbent and a prominent political figure, was re-elected for a third term.
Madobe secured 55 votes in the regional parliament, far ahead of his two challengers, but his re-election has been dismissed by Somalia’s federal government as illegitimate.
Mogadishu has accused Madobe of manipulating the electoral process to maintain his grip on power.
A Complex Power Struggle
This deployment is the latest flashpoint in Somalia’s broader power struggle between the federal government and its regional states, a contest that has undermined efforts to rebuild the country after decades of conflict and instability.
Under Somalia’s federal model, regions like Jubaland enjoy significant autonomy but remain in a tenuous and often contentious relationship with the central government.
Analysts say the Jubaland standoff reflects deeper structural weaknesses in Somalia’s federal system.
“This is not just about Jubaland; it’s about the entire trajectory of federalism in Somalia,” said Mohamed Bash, a political analyst based in Nairobi.
“The current government’s approach risks turning political disagreements into outright conflict.”
The federal government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has sought to assert greater authority over regional states, viewing some of them, like Jubaland, as obstacles to its state-building agenda.
In contrast, Ahmed Madobe has positioned himself as a defender of regional autonomy, gaining backing from key political leaders and regional actors, whose security interests align with a stable and cooperative Jubaland administration.
A Geopolitical Dimension
The implications of this crisis extend beyond Somalia’s borders. Jubaland shares a long border with Kenya and has been a critical frontline in the fight against the al-Shabab militant group.
Kenya, which maintains a military presence in Jubaland under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), views the region as a buffer zone against cross-border insecurity.
Experts warn that a federal government’s attempts to take over Jubaland could disrupt existing counterterrorism operations and strain Mogadishu’s relations with Nairobi.
“Any perception of a unilateral move by the federal government could alienate key allies, particularly Kenya, and complicate Somalia’s already precarious security environment,” said Ahmed Ali, a Horn of Africa political analyst.
Meanwhile, the deployment has elicited mixed reactions on the ground.
Supporters of Ahmed Madobe see the federal government’s actions as an overreach aimed at undermining a legitimately elected leader.
However, critics of Madobe including Somali prime minister Hamza Abdi Barre who chaired Jubaland’s state electoral commission argue that his leadership has entrenched clan-based divisions and failed to deliver tangible governance improvements.
Nonetheless, this latest confrontation could exacerbate Somalia’s already fragile political climate amid growing political crisis, largely centered around a controversial constitutional review process, plans for universal elections.
However, Experts caution that further escalation in Jubaland risks overshadowing these priorities and derailing progress.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher,” said Ali.
“Both sides need to exercise restraint and engage in meaningful dialogue. Somalia’s future as a federal state hangs in the balance.”
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