Mogadishu, Somalia – Somalia is preparing for a major shift in its security operations as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) approaches its conclusion on Dec. 31, 2024, with plans to transition to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) on Jan. 1, 2025.
But, unresolved issues surrounding the new mission have raised concerns about potential security gaps that could be exploited by al-Shabab militants.
The drawdown of ATMIS forces, including the recent handover of several military bases to Somali forces, is part of a phased exit strategy agreed upon by the African Union and Somali government.
However, Somali officials have expressed concerns over their capacity to manage security independently, particularly in regions where al-Shabab remains active.
“Somali forces are making significant progress, but the timeline for this transition is ambitious, and the risks of leaving security vacuums are real,” a senior Somali government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
Despite the approval of the concept of operations for AUSSOM in August, security experts warn that key details remain unresolved.
These include troop contributions, funding arrangements, and the scope of the new mission’s mandate.
Somalia has already rejected Ethiopia’s participation in AUSSOM, citing sovereignty concerns and strained relations between the two nations.
“A clear plan for AUSSOM is urgently needed,” said Ahmed Ali, a Somali security analyst based in Nairobi.
“Without a smooth handover and adequate resources, we risk undoing years of progress in stabilizing Somalia.”
Al-Shabab Threat Looms
The transition comes at a time when al-Shabab militants have ramped up attacks in an effort to exploit vulnerabilities in Somali security.
The Somali government recently requested a slower withdrawal of ATMIS forces to ensure its national army is ready to fill the gaps, a request that was denied.
“Militant groups thrive in uncertainty, and the lack of clarity over AUSSOM’s structure only increases the risk,” said Colonel Mohamed Hassan, a retired Somali military officer.
Meanwhile, International partners, including the United States, Turkey, and Qatar, have pledged to support Somalia during this transition but have called for greater urgency in finalizing AUSSOM’s framework.
A meeting in October emphasized the need for sustained funding and coordination to prevent a resurgence of violence.
UN Security Council Resolution (2748) adopted on 16 August 2024 authorised African Union Member States to continue to deploy up to 12,626 uniformed personnel – inclusive of 1,040 police personnel, to ATMIS until 31 December 2024.
Deployed in 2007, the Ugandan-led mission, ATMIS, previously known as AMISOM, remains central to Somalia’s security, safeguarding key areas such as population centers, supply routes, and infrastructure.
The force also supports joint operations with the Somali National Army, facilitates humanitarian aid, and protects political processes, including elections.
The coming weeks will be pivotal as Somalia and the African Union finalize preparations for the handover.
Analysts warn that any delays or missteps in implementing AUSSOM could lead to instability, undermining gains made during ATMIS’s tenure.
“The stakes are high,” said Ali. “The success of this transition will determine Somalia’s security trajectory for years to come.”
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