Mogadishu, Somalia– Somalia’s surprise request to terminate the United Nations political mission earlier this year has triggered concerns that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is consolidating power, sidelining regional administrations, and intensifying an aggressive centralization agenda.
The decision to end the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which had operated since 2013 to support Somalia’s state-building efforts, marked a turning point in the country’s political trajectory.
Analysts say it emboldened President Mohamud to advance controversial constitutional reforms and policies viewed as coercive by regional leaders, further fracturing Somalia’s delicate federal system.
In May 2024, Somalia formally requested the termination of UNSOM, claiming it had outlived its mandate. The federal government argued that Somalia had made sufficient strides in its political development to operate without external oversight.
However, regional leaders and opposition figures argue that UNSOM’s departure paved the way for President Mohamud to pursue unchecked centralization.
Without the mission’s presence to mediate between federal and regional authorities, tensions over power-sharing and governance have escalated.
“UNSOM was a stabilizing force,” said a regional official from Puntland, which has openly opposed Mohamud’s agenda.
“Its absence has emboldened the president to ignore federalism and dismantle Somalia’s constitutional foundations.”
Shortly after UNSOM’s departure, President Mohamud’s administration accelerated efforts to amend Somalia’s constitution, expanding presidential powers and centralizing decision-making in Mogadishu.
The unilateral reforms championed by Mr. Mohamud have sparked widespread opposition, particularly from Federal Member States like Puntland and Jubaland, which accuse Mohamud of overreach.
“The president is using constitutional amendments as a tool to centralize power,” said Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, a prominent opposition leader.
“Somalia’s federal system is under attack, and we will resist these changes.”
Puntland, Somalia’s oldest regional state, suspended cooperation with the federal government in April, describing Mohamud’s actions as an “authoritarian” power grab.
REGIONAL FALLOUT AND FEDERAL DISUNITY
The termination of UNSOM has also exacerbated political fragmentation within Somalia.
Without international oversight to facilitate dialogue, disputes between the federal government and regional states over resource-sharing, governance, and security coordination have deepened.
Security analysts warn that these divisions are weakening Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabab, the Islamist insurgent group that controls parts of the country.
“Centralization has alienated regional authorities, many of whom lead anti-Al-Shabab operations,” said Ahmed Farah, a Mogadishu-based analyst.
“This political rift is undermining Somalia’s security efforts at a critical time.”
The decision has further strained relations with Puntland and Jubaland, where leaders argue that centralized control over oil revenues and international aid is marginalizing their regions.
Furthermore, Somalia’s request to end UNSOM surprised international stakeholders, including the United Nations, European Union, and key donors who have funded the country’s state-building processes.
Many viewed the mission as critical to ensuring transparency and balancing power in a fragile political system.
“UNSOM’s departure leaves Somalia vulnerable to political power plays,” said one foreign diplomat familiar with the matter.
“There are real concerns about democratic backsliding and regional instability.”
The international community have subsequently urged President Mohamud to engage with regional leaders and prioritize consensus-building to avoid further division.
Meanwhile, the president’s aggressive centralization agenda reflects Somalia’s historic tensions between centralized governance and regional autonomy.
Under President Mohamud, critics say the federal government is reverting to policies reminiscent of the pre-1991 era, when centralized rule fueled clan grievances and ultimately led to the collapse of the state.
“Somalis fought for federalism because centralization failed,” said Halima Nur, a constitutional expert.
“President Mohamud’s policies risk undoing decades of progress and plunging the country back into conflict.”
Since the termination of UNSOM, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has also advanced a controversial popular elections agenda, sparking tensions with regional administrations.
In Jubaland, Mohamud deployed federal troops to challenge the recent re-election of the state president Ahmed Madobe, which the Federal Government of Somalia denounced as illegitimate.
His state’s election process directly contrasted Mohamud’s push for universal suffrage, deepening the divide.
The standoff escalated into deadly clashes, with regional forces regaining control of a key town on on Wednesday, underscoring the growing rift between the central government and regional leaders.
In the meantime, Somalia’s decision to terminate UNSOM may have been framed by government as a step toward sovereignty, but it has set the stage for an intensified power struggle between the federal government and regional administrations.
With the president’s constitutional reforms underway and opposition mounting, the political divide threatens to destabilize the fragile state.
For now, Somalia’s regions are digging in, while President Mohamud shows no sign of retreating from his centralization agenda.
