Mogadishu, Somalia— As Somalia moves toward a historic election, opposition leaders are raising alarms over what they call a unilateral push by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to introduce universal suffrage, an electoral shift that critics say is rushed, lacks consensus, and could plunge the fragile nation into a deeper political crisis.
Meeting with international donors this week, opposition figures accused the president of sidelining key stakeholders and proceeding with an election model that remains controversial in a country long governed by a clan-based power-sharing system.
With the elections, marred by array of controversies and accusations of power grab and authoritarianism agenda by the president is on the horizon, the country finds itself in a perilous situation, trapped between political factions, a divided public, and mounting international pressure to resolve the dispute.
In a meeting that highlighted both the personal stakes for Somalia’s leaders and the broader uncertainty surrounding the country’s political future, former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a key rival of the incumbent, met with the United Nations’ Special Representative for Somalia, James Swan, to discuss rising tensions over the election process.
According to media reports, Sharif voiced deep concerns over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s electoral strategy, which has fueled intense political disputes and deepened divisions nationwide. His warnings come as Somalia’s embattled electoral commission begins registering presidential candidates, setting the stage for a highly contentious race. The process follows a series of controversies, including the president’s push for constitutional reforms—a move strongly opposed by the opposition and two influential federal states, Jubaland and Puntland.
For decades, Somalia has relied on an indirect electoral system in which clan elders and appointed delegates choose members of parliament, who then elect the president.
The system, while criticized for being opaque and prone to elite bargaining, has provided a degree of stability in a nation that has suffered from civil war, insurgencies, and state collapse.
However, President Mohamud has insisted his universal suffrage as a long-overdue reform that would grant ordinary Somalis the right to vote directly for their leaders.
His administration argues that direct elections would enhance democratic legitimacy and break the grip of political elites who have long dominated the system.
“This is about giving power back to the Somali people,” said Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, Somalia’s foreign minister and a key ally of the president.
“Universal suffrage is the only way to ensure true representation and end the backroom deals that have defined our politics for too long.”
But, opposition leaders and regional politicians counter that Mohamud’s push is driven less by democratic ideals and more by political self-interest and a move designed to consolidate power.
They argue that his government has failed to build consensus among key stakeholders, particularly key political stakeholders and federal member states, some of whom accused him of having authoritarian tendencies.
“The president is forcing through a process that has no agreement, no legal framework, and no security guarantees,” said Abdinasir Ali, a political analyst based in Mogadishu.
“Without broad buy-in from Somali political actors, this could easily trigger unrest or even violence.”
A Country Still Grappling with Security and Governance Challenges
Beyond the political disagreements, logistical and security concerns loom large.
Somalia remains locked in a protracted battle against the Al-Shabab insurgency, which controls large swaths of the countryside and has demonstrated a capacity to launch deadly attacks in major cities.
The extremist group has explicitly threatened to target election-related activities, raising fears that voter registration, though widely seen as infeasible and polling stations could become targets.
Additionally, the country’s institutions remain weak, and past electoral processes have been marred by allegations of fraud, vote-buying, manipulation, and interference.
In 2021, a disputed election process nearly led to an all-out conflict in Mogadishu when former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo sought to extend his term, prompting armed clashes between rival factions within the security forces, loyal to both the government and the opposition.
“Elections in Somalia have always been contentious, but moving to direct elections without the necessary security and institutional safeguards is extremely risky,” said a Western diplomat familiar with Somalia’s political landscape.
“There is a reason why previous governments have hesitated to take this step.”
Meanwhile, Somalia’s international partners, including the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations, have long advocated for democratic reforms but are wary of any move that could destabilize the country. The donors’ meeting with opposition leaders signals growing concerns that Mohamud’s approach could backfire.
“There is support for universal suffrage in principle, but the process matters,” said a senior UN official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“If this leads to another political crisis, it could weaken Somalia’s ability to fight Al-Shabab and advance economic reforms.”
Adding to the complexity is Somalia’s delicate relationship with its federal member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, which have resisted the central government’s authority.
Jubaland, in particular, has already conducted its own regional elections independent of Mogadishu’s directives, highlighting the growing fractures in Somali politics.
“The federal system in Somalia was designed to prevent the dominance of any one group, and now there is a fear that universal suffrage, as currently structured, could tilt the balance of power in ways that some regions will not accept,” said Mohamed Hashi, a Somali political analyst and researcher based in Nairobi.
With the highly disputed presidential candidate registration now underway, Somalia’s political temperature is rising.
Opposition leaders have hinted at possible protests or parallel elections if the government proceeds without broader consensus.
Meanwhile, clan elders, traditionally the power brokers in Somali politics, remain divided on whether the shift to direct elections is feasible or desirable at this time.
For ordinary Somalis, the stakes are high. While many welcome the idea of universal suffrage, skepticism runs deep about whether the government can deliver a credible, secure, and inclusive electoral process.
“If we can vote directly, that is good,” said Amina Warsame, a university student in Mogadishu.
“But only if it is fair. Otherwise, it will just be another excuse for politicians to fight over power while the people suffer.”
While Somalia’s internal challenges have been significant, international involvement has played an outsized role in shaping the country’s electoral landscape.
The United Nations, along with key international donors such as the United States and the European Union, have poured billions of dollars into Somalia’s reconstruction efforts over the past decade. Yet despite this heavy investment, Somalia’s political situation remains tenuous, with continued pressure on the Somali government to ensure a free and fair election.
Swan’s meeting with the opposition in Mogadishu highlights the international community’s deep concern over the direction of Somalia’s political trajectory.
Following the meeting with Sharif Sheikh, Swan emphasized the need for dialogue and consensus on the electoral process.
Meanwhile, the government’s capacity to deliver basic services, particularly in rural areas, remains limited.
In the meantime, the potential for violence in the lead-up to the election is a real and worrying prospect.
Somalia’s history of electoral violence—often spurred by contested results and exclusionary practices—raises fears of further unrest.
The international donors have urged Somali leaders to create conditions that would allow for peaceful and credible elections, but with little agreement on the process itself, it remains unclear how this will be achieved.
“The people of Somalia are yearning for a legitimate and fair election,” says Dr. Hassan. “But without a commitment from all political factions to work together and build trust, the situation is only going to get worse.”
As Somalia’s leaders and international partners navigate this fraught process, the country stands at a crossroads: a potential leap toward democratic legitimacy, or yet another chapter of political turbulence in a nation still struggling to find stability.
