Mogadishu, Somalia –The seemingly innocent photo-op featuring former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and United Nations envoy James Swan has ignited political tremors within Somalia’s federal government.
The image, marking their first official meeting since the 2022 presidential election, symbolizes much more than a diplomatic handshake. it serves as a flashpoint in a deeply polarized political environment.
In Somalia, where the path to stability remains fragile, the optics of such encounters are never merely ceremonial.
For the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, this image stirs memories of political infighting and a controversial history of electoral reforms, as well as a backdrop of rising concerns over the future of the country’s election process.
Meanwhile, the reappearance of Roble, a central figure in Somalia’s most recent political drama, in the spotlight comes at a time of intense political wrangling over the country’s election model.
Roble, who was appointed Prime Minister in 2020, played a pivotal role in overseeing Somalia’s most recent indirect elections in 2021-2022.
His efforts to steer the country through a tense and volatile electoral process came after a bitter rift with then-President Mohamed Farmajo, who had championed the idea of direct elections.
The failure to agree on a path forward under Farmajo’s leadership resulted in a return to the indirect electoral model, a move that was seen by many as a compromise in the face of overwhelming opposition.
Today, Roble’s presence, coupled with his relationship with the UN, is seen by some as a potential challenge to the current administration’s political agenda.
His engagement with the UN envoy, a prominent figure within the international community, raises questions about his potential influence in Somali politics moving forward.
For President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the image of Roble and Swan presents a new dilemma that could not have come at a worse time.
Mohamud’s administration is currently pushing for a controversial shift toward universal suffrage, a move that has sparked heated debate within the political establishment.
While the goal of one-person, one-vote elections is seen as a step toward greater political legitimacy and inclusivity, it is opposed by a large portion of the population, who fear that such a shift could exacerbate the country’s ethnic and clan rivalries, which have long been a source of instability.
Experts suggest that this push for universal suffrage represents a critical moment for Mohamud’s presidency.
“It is an opportunity for Somalia to move toward a more democratic future, but it also risks igniting the same fissures that have plagued previous attempts at electoral reform,” said Ali Mohamed, a political analyst based in Mogadishu.
Furthermore, the administration’s push to reform the electoral system is fraught with challenges.
There are significant logistical, financial, and security hurdles to overcome, not to mention the deep-seated political opposition from entrenched clan interests.
The fear is that any move to alter the current indirect system could lead to further fragmentation, and the return of key figures like Roble might be seen by some as a threat to Mohamud’s vision for the future.
The Elephant in the Room: Is History Repeating Itself?
The meeting between Roble and Swan also brings to the forefront fears about Somalia’s political stability.
For many within the Somali government, it is a stark reminder of the past. The 2020-2021 electoral crisis, marked by Roble’s tense relationship with Farmajo, the international community’s intervention, and the subsequent forced return to indirect elections—still looms large in the memory of political elites.
“History seems to be repeating itself,” said Ahmed Farah, a Somali political observer.
“The wider opposition facing the president’s agenda complicates the already complex political calculus of the current government.”
Moreover, Roble’s proximity to the international donors further complicates the political scene.
While the UN is often regarded as a stabilizing force, some officials in Mohamud’s administration may now view its involvement as an added layer of pressure, further complicating the implementation of his contentious electoral agenda.
Despite these concerns, the international community, including the UN, has emphasized the need for a transparent and inclusive electoral process.
Roble’s engagement with Swan, therefore, serves as a reminder of the continuing international interest in Somalia’s political evolution, even as the country’s leaders face mounting internal challenges.
A Divided Political Class
As political tensions deepen and opposition mounts against President Mohamud’s ambitious election plans—widely viewed as part of a broader centralization agenda—Somalia’s path toward a more inclusive and democratic future remains uncertain.
The debates over the electoral model are just one facet of the country’s larger challenges, which include persistent security threats, humanitarian crises, and systemic corruption.
For Mohamud, the key question is whether he can forge a new path or if Somalia will remain trapped in a recurring cycle of electoral crises.
Clan rivalries, entrenched political interests, and a deeply rooted elite present formidable obstacles.
With influential figures like former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed—one of Mohamud’s key rivals—and Roble still active, the prospect of returning to old patterns of political bargaining and backroom deals remains a serious concern.
Yet, the backdrop to this meeting is Somalia’s long-standing political instability.
Since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, the country has faced an uphill battle in establishing a functioning government, with intermittent bouts of civil war, insurgencies, and regional power struggles.
The introduction of indirect elections in 2012 marked a step forward, but critics argue that the system has entrenched clan-based politics, leaving Somalia’s electoral process vulnerable to manipulation.
“The system we have now isn’t ideal, but it has allowed the country to hold elections in a relatively controlled environment,” said Abdi Ali, a former election observer.
“The move to universal suffrage is ambitious, but whether Somalia is ready for such a leap is another question.”
Despite the pressing questions on whether Somalia is truly prepared for such a transition. What is certain, however, is that both internal and external political forces will continue to shape the country’s future in unpredictable—and at times destabilizing—ways.
