Mogadishu, Somalia — In a decisive response to an escalating insurgency, the Somali federal government has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle Shabelle region to counter a significant offensive by the al-Qaeda-linked militant group, al-Shabab.
The extremists have captured several towns and villages in this region, which lies adjacent to the capital, Mogadishu, marking one of their most largest offensives in recent years.
The resurgence of al-Shabab comes at a critical juncture for Somalia.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which has been instrumental in supporting Somali forces against insurgents, is in the process of drawing down its troops, with plans to fully transition security responsibilities to Somali forces by the end of 2024.
The transition from ATMIS to the smaller AU mission, AUSSOM, places greater pressure on the Somali government to take the lead in asserting control and maintaining stability.
Taking advantage of the transitional security challenges and a new financial strain caused by the U.S. aid freeze, al-Shabab ramped up its attacks, hitting with renewed intensity.
In late February 2025, the group launched coordinated attacks on multiple fronts in the Middle Shabelle region.
Utilizing vehicle-borne explosives, hundreds of militants and heavy weaponry, they targeted military bases and strategic towns, including Balad, a town approximately 30 kilometers north of Mogadishu.
The fall of Balad on February 28, following intense clashes, underscored the group’s renewed capabilities and strategic ambitions.
The Somali National Army (SNA), bolstered by local clan militias known as Macawisley, has been engaged in fierce battles to reclaim lost territories.
On March 2, the SNA reported killing around 40 al-Shabab fighters in operations near the town of Biyo Adde.
The following day, with support from U.S. airstrikes, Somali forces targeted militant positions near the El Baraf area, resulting in significant militant casualties.
Large Reinforcement
In a show of force, convoys of Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers rumbled out of Mogadishu in heavily armed battlewagons and transport trucks on a recent dau, heading toward the embattled Middle Shabelle region.
Across Mogadishu, hundreds of troops, armed with assault rifles and mounted machine guns, were seen departing the capital on Tuesday.
Their faces set with determination as they prepared for what is expected to be an intense and prolonged confrontation.
Military officials say the reinforcements will be tasked with retaking lost ground and securing strategic towns along the main supply routes.
“We are sending our strongest units to push back the terrorists and reclaim what belongs to the Somali people,” said a senior military commander overseeing the operation.
“The fight will not be easy, but we will not allow al-Shabab to advance any further.”
The proximity of these clashes to Mogadishu has raised alarms about the capital’s security.
In response, the government has intensified security measures within the city, including deploying additional forces and enhancing intelligence operations to preempt potential attacks.
Residents, while accustomed to intermittent violence, express growing concerns over the recent developments.
Meanwhile, international donors are closely watching Al-Shabaab’s resurgence, amid reports that the militant group has recently acquired significant weaponry, further fueling its renewed offensive.
In an apparent response to the development, the United Nations Security Council reauthorized the arms embargo on al-Shabab, aiming to restrict its access to weapons.
The United Nations Security Council also recently approved the establishment of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which is set to replace ATMIS.
This new mission aims to provide continued support to Somali forces in their fight against al-Shabab, albeit with a reduced troop presence, reflecting a strategic shift towards empowering local forces.
As the Somali government struggles to push back al-Shabab from newly seized territories in Middle Shabelle, security analysts and regional experts warn that the crisis exposes deeper structural weaknesses within Somalia’s security forces and governance.
In addition, the rapid fall of key areas, including Balad town, just 30 km north of Mogadishu – has raised serious concerns both domestically and internationally about the government’s ability to maintain control.
“Al-Shabab has adapted its strategy over the years, exploiting weak military leadership and poor coordination among Somali forces,” said Ahmed Mohamed, a Somalia security expert.
“The militants’ ability to retake towns so close to Mogadishu suggests that Somalia’s security gains remain fragile. Without sustained reforms, these battlefield setbacks will continue.”
Somalia’s national army, despite years of training by international partners, still struggles with internal cohesion, weak logistics, and inconsistent command structures.
Sabriye Hussen, a Somalia security researcher, argues that battlefield retreats reflect larger morale issues.
“When officers flee or order troops to withdraw, it raises concerns about whether soldiers feel equipped and motivated to fight. Al-Shabab is exploiting these weaknesses,” he noted.
The ATMIS Drawdown Factor
With the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) reducing its footprint amidst ongoing draw down, Somalia is under pressure to fill the security vacuum.
However, some experts, warn that the Somali government may not yet be fully prepared.
“The ATMIS exit timeline doesn’t necessarily align with Somalia’s military readiness. There’s a real risk that al-Shabab could expand further if security gaps persist,” one expert said.
What’s Next?
Experts believe that beyond military responses, Somalia needs deeper structural changes.
In that case, Mr. Mohamed emphasizes governance: “The only way to break this cycle is by strengthening governance in liberated areas. Military victories alone won’t end al-Shabab’s influence.”
While the battles rage on, the question remains whether Somalia’s government can adapt quickly enough to prevent further losses—and whether its international allies will continue to provide the critical support needed to turn the tide.
