Mogadishu, Somalia — The quiet dawn in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region was shattered on Thursday as waves of Al-Shabab militants launched coordinated assaults on several villages, highlighting the group’s enduring capacity to regroup and strike with deadly precision despite intensified military operations against it.
Residents of the targeted villages, including El Ali , Alkowthar, iyo Ali Foldhere described a chaotic scene as heavily armed fighters stormed local communities at first light.
“They came from different directions, firing indiscriminately,” said Abdirahman Ali, a villager who fled to Alkowthar, a rural village on the southern part of the region.
“We were caught off guard.”
The Somali National Army (SNA), with support from allied clan militias, repelled the attacks, reportedly killing over 130 militants.
Yet, despite these tactical victories, experts warn that the broader fight against Somalia’s most notorious insurgency remains far from over.
According to military officials, the coordinated attacks on the five villages including one district, Mahaday, featuring suicide car bombings and hundreds of militants – represent the group’s largest offensive in almost a year.
Officials suggest the assaults which lasted over 24 hours and saw extremists stormed Mahaday district were likely a strategic move to assess the Somali army’s preparedness ahead of possible larger-scale attacks in the coming months.
Al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda linked group, designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, United Nations, and African Union, has demonstrated remarkable resilience since its emergence in the mid-2000s.
Even after suffering significant territorial losses, the group has adapted, focusing on asymmetric warfare, targeted assassinations, and sophisticated bombings that continue to destabilize the country.
Meanwhile, the latest surge in attacks coincides with Somalia’s intensified counterinsurgency campaign, supported by international partners including the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and U.S. Africa Command. According to Somali defense officials,
But, Al-Shabab has increasingly exploited rural regions in regions like Middle Shabelle, where governmental presence remains weak.
“What we are witnessing is a strategic shift,” said Ahmed Noor, a Mogadishu-based security analyst.
“Al-Shabab is recalibrating its operations to avoid direct confrontations with better-equipped government forces while expanding influence in underserved rural areas.”
The group’s resurgence is also fueled by Somalia’s complex clan dynamics. While many clans oppose Al-Shabab, others have been coerced or incentivized to provide safe havens.
“It’s not just about military might,” Noor added. “Socioeconomic grievances and governance gaps play into the group’s hands.”
The recent Middle Shabelle attacks reveal the operational sophistication Al-Shabab retains.
Militants deployed improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to ambush SNA convoys before launching infantry assaults on villages. Civilians, caught in the crossfire, continue to bear the brunt of the violence.
“My family fled at dawn when the shooting began,” said Ahmed Farah, a resident of El Ali, one of the targeted villages.
“We thought the army and Macawisley had control, but the militants returned stronger. It’s a cycle of fear and displacement.”
In response, Somali forces have launched counter-offensives, recapturing several outposts.
Yet, sustaining territorial gains remains challenging.
According to the International Crisis Group, “holding liberated areas requires more than just military presence; it demands robust local governance and humanitarian support.”
The group’s apparent resurgence has alarmed regional and international stakeholders.
ATMIS forces have stepped up patrols, while the United States has resumed targeted airstrikes on high-value Al-Shabab and ISIS targets.
Despite these efforts, the insurgency’s adaptability poses a persistent threat.
“Military solutions alone won’t suffice,” emphasized Dr. Abdinor Warsame, a Somali political analyst based in Nairobi.
“There must be parallel efforts in reconciliation, economic development, and governance reforms to address root causes.”
Somalia’s federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has pledged renewed focus on stabilizing conflict-affected regions.
Yet, the task is daunting. Years of underinvestment, corruption, and political infighting have undermined previous counterinsurgency efforts.
Why Al-Shabab Endures
Al-Shabaab’s survival is attributed to several factors: its exploitation of clan rivalries, reliance on illegal taxation, and ability to leverage cross-border networks for financing.
Notably, the group has also capitalized on Somalia’s youth unemployment crisis, recruiting disaffected young men with promises of income and purpose.
“This is as much a war of narratives as it is of weapons,” noted Warsame.
“Until young Somalis see viable alternatives, Al-Shabab will remain an option for some.”
With ATMIS set to conclude its mission in 2025, Somalia faces a pivotal moment.
The question remains: Can the country build a sustainable security apparatus that endures beyond foreign military support?
As Middle Shabelle reels from the latest violence, the answer holds profound implications for Somalia’s future.
For residents like Farah, the immediate hope is simple: “We just want peace to farm our lands and raise our children without fear. Is that too much to ask?”
