Mogadishu, Somalia — In a marked shift from its usual guerrilla tactics, Al-Shabab has launched a series of high-intensity offensives across Somalia, with prolonged battles that point to a significant boost in the group’s firepower.
The latest attack on Biya Adde on Saturday saw militants who have recently captured several strategic areas in Middle Shabelle region engage government forces for a full day during which they captured large sections of the town, raising concerns over the insurgent group’s evolving capabilities.
For years, Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda-linked militant organization, relied on swift ambushes and tactical retreats, often avoiding direct confrontations with Somali and African Union (AU) forces.
However, officials and security analysts say the group’s recent operations, particularly in Middle Shabelle region suggest a steady supply of weapons and enhanced logistical capacity, allowing it to hold territory for extended periods.
A Tactical Evolution?
“This is not the Al-Shabab we saw five years ago,” said a senior Somali intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“They are well-armed, fighting longer battles, and executing coordinated assaults. That suggests they have established a new supply chain for weapons.”
The timing of Al-Shabab’s resurgence coincides with Somalia’s fragile political environment and the phased withdrawal of AU peacekeepers, raising fears that the militants are capitalizing on security gaps.
Analysts warn that the group’s tactics resemble those of other insurgencies that have strengthened amid transitional periods, including the Taliban in Afghanistan.
“The parallels are clear,” said an expert on African jihadist movements.
“Militant groups tend to exploit power vacuums and strategic withdrawals of foreign forces. Al-Shabab appears to be following that script, ramping up operations when they sense weakness in state security structures.”
Where Are the Weapons Coming From?
The question of Al-Shabab’s growing arsenal remains unanswered, but experts point to multiple potential sources. The Somali government has long accused regional arms traffickers and elements within the militant-controlled harbors of facilitating illicit arms shipments.
Some reports suggest that weapons intended for Somali government forces may be leaking into insurgent hands due to corruption and battlefield losses.
“Al-Shabab has always been adept at securing weapons, whether through smuggling networks, black-market purchases, or looting military stockpiles,” said Ahmed Abdi, a Horn of Africa security analyst.
“What’s concerning now is the scale. This is not just about small arms; they are deploying heavier firepower, possibly including anti-armor capabilities.”
Meanwhile, Somalia’s federal government has vowed to intensify counterterrorism efforts, but officials acknowledge the difficulty of regaining momentum.
The government’s reliance on clan militias to supplement its forces has proven both a strength and a liability, as internal divisions complicate coordinated military operations.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) has urged international partners to strengthen intelligence-sharing and arms embargo enforcement to prevent further weapons flow to Al-Shabab.
However, with global attention divided by other conflicts, there are concerns that Somalia’s security situation may deteriorate before a decisive response is mounted.
“The stakes are high,” said an African Union diplomat based in Mogadishu via Whatsapp chat.
“If Al-Shabab continues this trajectory, we could see a situation where they not only seize more territory but dictate terms of engagement to the Somali government, much like we saw with the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan.”
A Critical Juncture
With Al-Shabab proving its ability to launch sustained offensives, Somalia’s security forces and international allies face mounting pressure to adapt their counterinsurgency strategy.
Whether this surge in militant activity represents a short-term escalation or a long-term shift remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Al-Shabab is no longer fighting as an insurgency in retreat—it is advancing with a calculated strategy that could reshape the country’s security landscape.
Amidst intensifying fighting, the question remains: can Somalia and its allies regain the upper hand before Al-Shabab further entrenches itself?
