Mogadishu (Somalistandard) – On Dec 2022, The United Nations Security Council has approved a resolution to delay the withdrawal of 2,000 personnel from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) force for six months.
According to officials, the unanimous decision was made in response to a request from the African Union and will extend the authorization for the ATMIS drawdown until June 30, 2023, saying that the extension of the deadline would allow for a more gradual and measured withdrawal of the ATMIS troops, ensuring the continuation of important security measures in Somalia.
The resolution 2670 modified a previous deadline, which was established by Resolution when the AU Mission in Somalia was reconfigured into ATMIS, citing improved security conditions in the country.
However, concerns are being raised over the potential implications that the decision which is expected to reduce the number of troops could have for the stability and security of Somalia.
The planned gradual drawdowns will see a significant reduction in ATMIS’s military presence in Somalia, where the mission has been active since 2007, mandated to support the country’s Federal Government in fighting Al-Shabaab militants and stabilizing the security situation.
Despite having faced significant criticism over its often-sluggish military strategies, ATMIS’s efforts have been relatively successful in containing Al-Shabaab’s territorial control, but the insurgency remains a persistent threat in many parts of the country.
The drawdown decision has also raised questions about the readiness of the Somali security forces to take over the responsibilities currently handled by ATMIS.
The Somali government has been building up its security apparatus, with support from the international community, but the country’s security forces remain ill-equipped and undertrained, and their ability to operate independently remains in doubt.
The implications of the drawdown are also a concern for the troop-contributing countries, which include Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi, and Djibouti amid wider perceptions that the decision to reduce troop levels, could impact their national security interests and put their soldiers at risk, as the remaining troops would be required to cover a larger area of operation.
In addition to that, Interpretations of the decision vary. Some experts view the drawdown as a positive development, signalling an improvement in the security situation in Somalia, and recognition of the progress made by ATMIS and the Somali government. But, others see it as a premature move that could undermine the gains made by ATMIS and expose the country to increased insecurity, particularly in areas where Al-Shabaab still holds sway.
Predictions about the future security situation in Somalia are uncertain, and the impact of the drawdown on the country’s stability and security remains to be seen.
FRAGILE GAINS
Some experts believe that the reduction in troop numbers could create a security vacuum that could be exploited by Al-Shabaab and other armed groups, leading to an increase in violence and instability.
Others argue that the drawdown could provide the Somali government with an opportunity to assert greater control over the country and accelerate the pace of its security sector reform.
ATMIS
The African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is a peacekeeping mission established in 2007 with the primary goal of stabilizing Somalia and supporting the transitional federal government. One of its key components is the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which has been instrumental in supporting the Somali National Army (SNA) in conducting counterinsurgency operations against the Al-Shabaab terrorist group.
Implications
The ATMIS drawdown has significant implications for Somalia’s security situation.
Al-Shabaab remains a potent threat, and the withdrawal of ATMIS troops could embolden the group to intensify its attacks.
The Somali National Army (SNA) is not yet strong enough to confront Al-Shabaab independently. According to security experts, lack of a robust security force could result in a resurgence of violence, allowing the group to regain lost territory.
The reduction of the troop numbers could also have implications for regional security. Kenya, which contributes the largest number of troops to the mission, has been targeted by Al-Shabaab in the past. The group could exploit the security vacuum left by the withdrawal to launch cross-border attacks into Kenya.
Troop Contributing Countries
Five countries currently contribute troops to the mission: Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya. Uganda and Burundi are the largest contributors, with over 6,000 and 5,000 troops respectively. Ethiopia and Djibouti have smaller contingents, while Kenya has approximately 3,500 troops.
Interpretation
The planned ATMIS drawdown has been interpreted differently by various stakeholders.
The Somali government has welcomed the move, viewing it as a step towards Somalia assuming greater responsibility for its security.
Predictions
The ATMIS drawdown is expected to be a gradual process, with the African Union’s plan to complete the withdrawal will likely take more than expected. .
The security situation in Somalia is likely to remain fragile, with Al-Shabaab continuing to pose a significant threat.
While the withdrawal of ATMIS will free up funds for the Somali army and help it attract greater global attention, yet some experts are warning that it may also result in a shift of resources away from other critical areas, such as humanitarian aid and development initiatives
REGIONAL POWERS TAKE NOTE
The withdrawal could also lead to a realignment of regional dynamics, with countries such as Kenya potentially increase it’s engagement in Somalia to counter the threat posed by Al-Shabaab.
With that mind, analysts suggest that the Somali government will need to step up its efforts to secure additional funding from the international community to fill the gap left by ATMIS.
However, that could be challenging given the competing demands for resources in the region in the light of rhe recent discovery of natural resources in Somalia.
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