Mogadishu, Somalia — In the desolate town of Raskamboni, near Somalia’s porous border with Kenya, a military confrontation unfolded last week that reverberated far beyond its immediate battlefield.
Jubaland regional forces, under the command of President Ahmed Madobe, swiftly routed federal government troops, controversially deployed there three weeks ago, handing Somalia’s leadership a stunning defeat.
For Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, the setback marks not just a military loss but a deeply personal and political one—one that now casts serious doubt on his influence, value, and authority within a fragile federal system.
Somalia’s complex federal architecture, riddled with clan politics, regional power struggles, and international entanglements, has long tested the ability of leaders in Mogadishu to exert authority.
Yet the Raskamboni incident cuts deeper: analysts say it exposes widening cracks within the federal government and could force President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to recalibrate his leadership, potentially at the expense of his Prime Minister.
“This is not just a local military defeat,” said Dr. Abdi Ahmed, a Somali political analyst based in Mogadishu.
“It’s a direct challenge to the federal government’s credibility. Hamza Abdi Barre, as Prime Minister, now faces questions about whether he is the right person to navigate these regional tensions.”
A DEFEAT IN BARRE’S BACKYARD
The battle in Raskamboni was as symbolic as it was strategic.
The region falls within Jubaland, a semi-autonomous federal member state where Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has deep clan ties.
Barre, who hails from Jubaland, was expected to have significant sway over its leadership and regional forces. However, Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, long a formidable powerbroker, has increasingly distanced himself from Mogadishu’s influence, a stance reflected in the swift defeat of federal troops.
The failure raises questions about Barre’s ability to manage the sensitive dynamics of Somalia’s federal member states, where clan allegiances often override national interests.
“Jubaland is (was) a litmus test for the federal government,” said Hodan Mohamed, a Somali researcher specializing in governance.
“If Barre can’t secure his backyard, what does that say about his ability to unite the country?”
The debacle had also put the Prime Minister on Shaky Ground.
Appointed in June 2022 by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Barre was initially seen as a pragmatic choice—a leader capable of bridging clan divides while implementing HSM’s ambitious national security agenda. Yet the events in Raskamboni have left his leadership exposed.
Critics argue that Barre’s failure to preempt or resolve tensions in Jubaland highlights his diminishing political influence.
This comes at a critical juncture for Somalia, as the government grapples with security challenges, primarily posed by by Al-Shabab militants and struggles to implement national reconciliation efforts.
“Barre’s value to President Mohamud was rooted in his perceived ability to manage Jubaland,” Mohamed Nur, a Somalia policy affairs
“Now that Jubaland forces have humiliated federal troops, his position has become increasingly untenable.”
HSM’S CALCULUS: REPLACE OR RETAIN?
For President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the setback in Raskamboni creates both a challenge and an opportunity.
HSM has staked his leadership on a strategy of consolidating federal control, defeating Al-Shabab, and balancing regional power dynamics.
With Jubaland now emboldened, analysts suggest HSM may be forced to consider replacing Hamza Abdi Barre as a way to restore authority and send a signal of strength to other federal member states.
“This is politics as survival,” said Ahmed Abdulle, a Nairobi-based security analyst.
“HSM may decide that removing Barre is the easiest way to stabilize his administration and reset relations with Jubaland. It would also allow him to project strength at a time when his government looks weak.”
Replacing Barre, however, comes with risks.
It could deepen political divides within Somalia’s complex clan-based system and embolden rivals within HSM’s coalition.
At the same time, it would send a message to regional states like Puntland and Southwest State that the federal government is serious about asserting control.
Meanwhile, the Raskamboni setback also bolsters Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe’s position as a powerful regional leader.
A long-time ally of major regional powers and a key player in the fight against Al-Shabab, Madobe’s victory signals his ability to challenge Mogadishu’s authority while maintaining strong international support.
Furthermore, Jubaland’s military success could inspire other federal member states to resist federal directives.
Puntland, for instance, has already adopted an increasingly autonomous posture, and Southwest State has shown signs of similar resistance.
“This is a dangerous moment for the federal government,” said Hodan Mohamed.
“If Jubaland’s defiance goes unchecked, other regions may follow suit.”
