Mogadishu, Somalia—As Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud intensifies military operations against al-Shabab, his administration faces a wave of political backlash.
Opposition leaders accuse him of using the counterterrorism campaign as a political shield, sidelining rivals and consolidating power ahead of the next election.
The government insists its focus is national security, but as al-Shabab regains territory in Middle Shabelle region, located near Mogadishu, critics warn that political maneuvering could undermine the war effort.
A WAR ON TERROR OR A WAR FOR POWER?
The ongoing military campaign is one of the largest in recent years, aimed at uprooting al-Shabab militants from their strongholds.
However, the Islamist insurgents are on rampage, recapturing villages and towns in Middle Shabelle, just north of Mogadishu.
The deteriorating security situation has fueled opposition claims that the government’s military strategy is more about optics than effectiveness.
“The president is prioritizing political survival over national security,” said Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former president and presidential candidate.
“We should be focusing on a unified national strategy against al-Shabab, but instead, he is using this war to push his personal agenda and silence critics.”
Government officials strongly reject this characterization.
Defense minister Abdulkhadir Nur, called the accusations “reckless” made by ‘Al-Shabab sympathizers’ at a time when Somalia’s military forces need full political backing.
“The opposition is playing politics while our troops are dying on the battlefield,” he said. “The president is committed to defeating al-Shabab, and any claims that this is political strategy are absurd.”
WHY THE ACCUSATIONS MATTER
Somalia’s political landscape is notoriously fragmented, and accusations of security being politicized are not new.
The current dispute comes at a time when Mohamud is facing mounting challenges on multiple fronts:
– Al-Shabab’s Resurgence: The group has proven to be more resilient than anticipated, reclaiming lost ground and launching high-profile urban attacks, including the latest complex attack on a hotel in Beledweyne, which killed more than 14 people.
– Electoral Uncertainty: With elections approaching, opposition leaders fear that Mohamud could use the counterterrorism narrative to extend his rule or manipulate the election process.
– Foreign Policy Shifts: Somalia is caught in the geopolitical competition between major geopolitical rivals., all of whom have a stake in Mogadishu’s security policies.
Ahmed Mohamed, a Somali political analyst, notes that these concerns are not without merit.
“Somali politics has always been deeply intertwined with security operations. Historically, sitting presidents have used counterterrorism efforts to neutralize political opposition and secure loyalty from key military and regional actors,” he explained.
IS THE GOVERNMENT SILENCING DISSENT?
A major point of contention is whether the government is weaponizing the war effort to suppress opposition voices.
The opposition argues that by framing any criticism as “unpatriotic” or “weakening the war effort,” the administration is guilt-tripping critics into silence.
“The way this government is handling dissent is dangerous,” said Abdirashid Jiley, an opposition federal parliamentarian.
“They are telling us: If you speak up, you are helping al-Shabab. If you criticize, you are against Somalia’s security. This is not democracy; this is manipulation.”
The Somali government, however, maintains that opposition leaders are undermining national unity at a critical moment.
“We need to be united against al-Shabab,” said Nur, the defense minister.
STRATEGIC RISKS: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
While the political back-and-forth continues, analysts warn the biggest beneficiary of this divide is al-Shabab.
The militant group thrives on political instability and has historically exploited government infighting to expand its control.
Meanwhile, security analysts warn that political distractions could weaken military coordination, giving al-Shabab an operational advantage.
In that scenario, they warn that public confidence in the government’s security management could deteriorate, potentially driving greater local support for al-Shabab in contested regions.
The consequences could be even more significant. Experts warn that any indication of security operations being politicized might jeopardize international backing.
As a result, key foreign partners, including the U.S. and EU, may reconsider their support, concerned that Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts are being used for political purposes.
“This is exactly what al-Shabab wants,” said a security expert based in Nairobi on condition of anonymity.
“When Somalia’s political elite is divided, the militants gain the upper hand. The government must ensure that security strategy remains separate from election politics if it wants to sustain long-term success against al-Shabab.”
This may require a delicate balancing act to maintain the momentum.
For President Mohamud, the challenge is clear: analysts say, he must prove that his administration can effectively combat al-Shabab while maintaining political credibility.
If the opposition’s accusations gain traction, he risks losing domestic and international support.
“The president must be very careful,” warns Yusuf Ali, a Somali political commentator.
“If he is seen as exploiting the war for personal gain, it will not only damage his legacy but also undermine the entire counterterrorism effort.”
With al-Shabab pushing its biggest offensive in years, Somalia cannot afford to let political disputes distract from the larger battle at hand.
Whether Mohamud can navigate this high-stakes balancing act will determine both his political fate and Somalia’s security future.
