Mogadishu, Somalia — In the heart of Mogadishu, where the echoes of past conflicts linger like ghosts in the air, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent announcement reverberates through the city’s bustling markets and quiet neighborhoods alike.
The ambitious pledge to introduce a one-person, one-vote electoral system by 2026 is being met with a blend of cautious optimism and deep-seated skepticism.
At the crowded Bakara Market, where vendors hawk everything from fresh produce to colorful textiles, the buzz about the new electoral promise is palpable.
Amina Ibrahim, a 38-year-old mother of four and a market stall owner, watches her customers with a wary eye as she shares her thoughts.
“It sounds good,” she says, her voice tinged with both hope and resignation.
“But we have heard promises before, and they have never come true. We need to see real changes on the ground, not just words.”
Her sentiment echoes across Mogadishu, where the specter of past failures looms large.
Somalia’s history of elections is a tale of broken promises and thwarted hopes, marred by violence, logistical failures, and political maneuvering.
The streets of the capital, now showing significant signs of growth and recovery from past conflicts, hold a quiet skepticism about the feasibility of Mohamud’s ambitious plan.
Just a few blocks from the market, at a university in Mogadishu, Dr. Amina Farah, a political analyst, sits in her cluttered office surrounded by stacks of research papers and books.
She contemplates the president’s pledge with a mix of professional detachment and personal concern.
“On paper, the idea of one-person, one-vote is a milestone,” she says, peering out from behind her glasses.
“But in reality, the challenges are immense. Security issues, infrastructure deficits, and political fragmentation are significant barriers.”
Adding to the complexity, President Mohamud has recently pushed through constitutional amendments that concentrate power within the executive branch, diminishing the authority of both the prime minister and parliament.
These changes, denounced by many including key opposition leaders as an attempt to consolidate presidential authority and undermine democratic process cast a long shadow over the electoral promise.
At a nearby café, a group of young activists huddle around a table, their animated conversation reflecting a blend of hope and apprehension.
“We want change, but we also fear that this could be a tactic to extend the president’s power,” says Hassan Ali, a 27-year-old student and activist.
“It’s a critical moment for Somalia, and the stakes are high.”
Amid these discussions, the streets of Mogadishu continue their daily rhythm, juxtaposing the urgency of political reform with the steady beat of everyday life.
The city’s resilient spirit is evident in its people, who balance their daily struggles with a cautious hope for a better future.
A Leap Towards Democracy or a Strategic Maneuver?
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s bold declaration, framed as a crucial step toward democratic reform, faces significant hurdles amid Somalia’s persistent instability and political volatility.
The Somali political landscape has long been defined by turbulence and conflict, which have severely hindered the country’s democratic progress.
Elections in Somalia have historically been marred by violence, fraud, and logistical failures, casting doubt on the feasibility of achieving a truly universal voting system in the near future.
The Mogadishu-based federal government’s strained relations with federal states, which are crucial for hosting any future popular votes, add to the complexities.
Disputes over autonomy and resource sharing have further strained these relationships.
Puntland, a key federal state, has frozen its working relations and ties with the central government.
Some state leaders are also operating under controversial term extensions initially sanctioned by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
With these extensions nearing their end, some state leaders are planning to hold their own elections independently of the federal government.
President Mohamud’s government, which has unsuccessfully attempted to effect regime changes in regional states to install his favorites, opposes these independent elections.
Yet, given Somalia’s current security challenges and the fragile state of its electoral infrastructure, the proposed timeline for achieving a universal voting system appears overly ambitious.
“There is a risk that this pledge might be a strategy to extend the president’s tenure under the guise of electoral preparations.” says Mohamed Ali, a political analyst based in Mogadishu.
Security remains a pressing issue in Somalia, with ongoing insurgent activities by groups such as Al-Shabab undermining efforts to establish a secure and functional electoral process.
One foreign diplomat based in Mogadishu who spoke on condition of anonymity, highlights the complexities involved:
“Executing a nationwide election within the stipulated timeframe demands substantial advancements in both security and logistics.” He noted.
“At present, the conditions are far from conducive to a stable and credible electoral process.”
Compounding these challenges are recent constitutional amendments pushed through by President Mohamud, which notably reduce the powers of the prime minister and parliament while consolidating authority within the executive branch.
Critics view these changes as an effort to solidify the president’s control, raising doubts about his commitment to authentic democratic reform.
Hassan Abdi, a Somali academic and expert in constitutional law, interprets these developments with caution:
“While the call for one-person, one-vote elections appears to be a step towards democracy, the concentration of power in the executive branch casts a shadow over the process.” He says with concern.
Additionally, allegations and reports that incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is secretly creating a private army to consolidate power and extend his term have intensified concerns and skepticism about the feasibility of the plan.
“Even If the elections proceed, they may be significantly influenced by the current power dynamics, potentially undermining the democratic intent behind them.” Abdi warns.
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