MOGADISHU, Somalia — In a region fraught with geopolitical tensions, Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has managed a precarious balancing act between global powers.
Since his unprecedented re-election for a second term in 2022, Mohamud has deftly navigated the interests of both Western allies and Eastern powerhouses.
Yet, the sustainability of this ambiguous diplomacy is increasingly under scrutiny.
His foreign policy strategy, characterized by its oscillation between East and West, has been met with both praise and skepticism.
On one hand, his administration has secured significant economic and military aid from the United States and European Union, critical for a country still grappling with the scourge of terrorism and economic instability.
On the other, Mohamud has strengthened ties with China and Russia, hoping future investments and military cooperation that some in the West view with suspicion.
“Somalia’s strategic location makes it a valuable ally for any major power,” said Ahmed Osman, a political analyst based in Mogadishu.
“Mohamud’s ability to engage both sides could bring tangible benefits to the country. However, this balancing act also risks alienating both sets of allies, especially when their interests clash.”
Indeed, recent developments have highlighted the delicate nature of Mohamud’s diplomacy.
In June, Somalia signed a controversial fishery deal with a Chinese firm, sparking ire in Washington, which has been wary of Beijing’s expanding footprint in Africa.
Simultaneously, Mohamud’s government has been negotiating a security pact with the European Union, much to the chagrin of Moscow, which has sought to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.
Yet again, the Somali president also has been seeking security and diplomatic cooperation with Russia.
Adding to the intrigue, his government also signed a maritime defense deal with Turkey, much to the disappointment of UAE, Ankara’s strategic rival.
Relations between Mogadishu and Dubai have since been under strain, with the UAE halted training of Somali forces and suspected funds it provided them.
The Emirates which also shipped out its military equipment and advisors from Mogadishu has since shifted its focus to the federal member states, away from the federal government.
Critics argue that Mohamud’s strategy lacks a clear long-term vision.
“This kind of diplomatic ambiguity might work in the short term, but it’s not a sustainable approach,” said Fatima Abdul, a former Somali diplomat.
“Eventually, Somalia will have to choose sides or risk losing the trust and support of all its allies.”
In the meantime, the stakes are high for Mohamud, who faces mounting domestic challenges alongside his international juggling act.
The country is still recovering from decades of civil war and battling the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab insurgents. Economic reforms have been slow, and widespread poverty and unemployment continue to fuel discontent among the populace.
But, as he navigates these complex waters, his administration remains adamant that Somalia can maintain its neutral stance.
“We are committed to a foreign policy that puts Somalia’s interests first,” said a senior advisor to the president who asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
“We believe that it is possible to engage with all global powers without compromising our sovereignty or long-term goals.”
Yet, as geopolitical tensions rise globally, Mohamud’s diplomatic dance is becoming increasingly precarious. The question remains: How long can Somalia sustain this delicate balancing act before the pressures force a definitive alignment?
For now, President Mohamud continues his tightrope walk, with the eyes of the world keenly watching his every step.
Note : Our next article will explore the domestic and international challenges that Somali President faces in his balancing act.
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