Mogadishu, Somalia –In the rugged, rocky terrain of Somalia’s Almiska Mountains, where ISIS fighters had long made their key strongholds, the recent precision of U.S. airstrikes has shifted the balance of power.
Once a burgeoning terror network, ISIS Somalia has now been reduced to a fractured, paranoid shell of its former self, reeling from a series of pinpoint strikes that have left the group’s leadership terrified and its operational capabilities crippled.
According to multiple intelligence sources, the airstrikes that targeted key figures within the Almiska stronghold were not mere accidents of war. They were calculated, methodical, and devastating.
“The strikes were almost too precise,” said a senior Puntland intelligence officer who spoke under the condition of anonymity.
“These weren’t just random hits. They were surgical, targeting the very heart of their command structure. From the keen observers perspectives, It was clear that someone inside had provided intelligence.”
For ISIS Somalia, the consequences have been catastrophic.
Fighters who once enjoyed the security of their remote hideouts now find themselves battling a creeping, perceived fear of betrayal.
The pinpoint accuracy of the last week’s airstrikes, which reportedly wiped out several high-ranking leaders, led to widespread suspicion of insider cooperation.
“When the bombs hit, it felt like we were being watched,” an intelligence officer quoted an ISIS insider who spoke to him after the airstrikes.
According to him, the insider described an atmosphere of fear and paranoia that gripped the group in the aftermath of more than three hours of bombings and missiles hitting deep caves and trenches.
“No one trusted anyone anymore. The fear of spies among us became unbearable,” he added, according to the official.
The disarray has only deepened as ISIS Somalia’s foreign fighters, many of whom traveled from countries such as Tunisia, Yemen, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and even Western Europe, now face the harsh reality of being cornered.
With a growing sense of paranoia sweeping through their ranks, many foreign jihadists have reportedly started to consider abandoning the cause, either fleeing into the wilderness or attempting to cross into neighboring countries.
Terror in the Tunnels
“Once the leadership was partially shattered, there was hardly any clear command structure left,” said Mohamed, a senior researcher specializing in terrorism and political violence.
He requested to use only his first name due to restrictions in his job contract that prevent him from speaking to the media.
“ISIS Somalia’s military leadership essentially fractured into factions, and the unity they once clung to quickly disappeared. It literally became every fighter for himself – at least since strikes took place.”
The strikes, the first, authorized by the U.S president Donald Trump since he was elected for the second time, targeted key locations within ISIS’s entrenched strongholds in Almiska, remote mountain ranges in Puntland.
The caves and tunnel networks were believed to be invulnerable to traditional military tactics, but they were no match for the U.S. drone and missile technology.
Analysts have said that the operation, however marked a significant shift in the dynamics of global counterterrorism, where intelligence-sharing and advanced technological capabilities played a central role in bringing down an otherwise elusive threat.
“It’s not just the leadership that’s fallen apart. It’s the entire logistics network,” explained Ahmed Sheikh, an expert on ISIS movements in East Africa.
“These strikes have shattered the group’s ability to communicate, organize, and resupply, at least for days. They can’t even trust their own fighters with simple logistics anymore.”
The Paranoia Factor
With their leadership significantly decimated, ISIS fighters have since turned on each other, with deepening rifts between local Somali jihadists and the foreign fighters who once held sway in the group.
As internal fights escalate, some even accuse each other of being responsible for the leaks that led to the devastating airstrikes.
“They thought they were untouchable,” said the intelligence official in Puntland. “But after those airstrikes, they started wondering if someone inside had sold them out. Not just few of them who thinks that.”
The fear of infiltration is so pervasive that it has pushed many fighters into abandoning their posts and fleeing into the hills or perhaps attempting to blend into local communities.
A Terrorist Network in Collapse
Experts have noted that these airstrikes, combined with a shifting regional landscape, have left ISIS Somalia at a crossroads.
As Puntland forces close in, the group’s ability to regroup seems increasingly unlikely – at least in the long run.
“The destruction of ISIS Somalia is a matter of when, not if,” said Yusuf Ahmed, a Horn of Africa security researcher.
“The U.S. airstrikes have turned the tide, but what’s more worrying is the void that will be left behind. ISIS’s collapse in Somalia could create an opening for other groups or militias to step in.”
For now, though, the remnants of ISIS are holed up, fractured and paranoid.
As Puntland troops march ever closer to the remnants of the Almiska stronghold, experts believe that the final chapter for ISIS Somalia is on the horizon.
But the long-term implications for the region—both politically and militarily—remain uncertain.