Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s federal government is taking decisive steps to centralize foreign diplomacy, curbing the ability of regional administrations to independently engage with foreign governments, particularly Ethiopia, officials say.
This diplomatic recalibration comes as Somalia and Ethiopia partially resolve a dispute over Addis Ababa’s recent port deal with Somaliland, raising both hopes for de-escalation and concerns about internal Somali divisions.
The controversial deal, signed in February last year, would allow Ethiopia to access Somaliland ports along the Red Sea, giving the landlocked country long-sought maritime access.
Somalia, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory, rejected the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty.
Under mounting diplomatic pressure and through Turkish mediation, Somalia and Ethiopia signed the Ankara Declaration in December, agreeing to dialogue.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia is expected in Mogadishu on Thursday, reciprocating Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s earlier visit to Addis Ababa.
Talks are expected to focus on regional security, economic cooperation, and finalizing Ethiopia’s role in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), under which Ethiopian troops will continue supporting counterterrorism operations against al-Shabaab insurgents.
Despite this diplomatic thaw, the Somali government’s effort to become the sole diplomatic interlocutor will likely spark backlash from Federal Member States like Puntland and Jubaland.
According to regional officials, the two states, already wary of Mogadishu’s centralizing tendencies, see the latest moves as an encroachment on their autonomy.
The regional administrations leaderships have subsequently accused the federal government of ignoring constitutional principles of federalism – with leaders conceened about the new diplpmatic push by the central government are reportedly warning that sidelining FMS could exacerbate political instability.
“Somalia’s leadership is walking a tightrope,” said Dr. Abdi Ibrahim, a Somali political analyst
“On one hand, they need to present a united front against Ethiopia’s assertive foreign policy. On the other, ignoring federal states’ concerns risks deepening internal divisions that Ethiopia, or other actors, could exploit.”
Ethiopia’s direct outreach to regional states has long been a point of contention.
Analysts argue that Abiy’s strategy, which includes cultivating ties with Puntland and Jubaland, is part of a broader regional push to expand regional influence and secure access to vital trade routes.
“Ethiopia’s geopolitical ambitions are clear,” said Nur Hani, a regional affairs expert.
“They need maritime access for economic growth, and the Red Sea corridor is central to that goal. But bypassing Mogadishu to negotiate with Somali regions was always going to be diplomatically fraught.”
Somalia’s response has been forceful.
Last year, Mogadishu expelled Ethiopian diplomats and ordered closure of Ethiopian consulates in Puntland and Somaliland, signaling its resolve to control foreign engagement.
Still, the aggressive diplomatic posture carries risks.
“While expulsions and restrictions could have risked isolating Somalia diplomatically, they instead bolstered the country’s negotiating position and helped it assert its sovereignty,” said Faris Warsame, an international relations scholar at a university in Mogadishu.
For everyday Somalis, the diplomatic chess match is being watched with mixed feelings.
“We want peace with Ethiopia, but not at the cost of our land,” said Fatima Noor, a shopkeeper in Mogadishu’s bustling Bakara Market.
Others, particularly in Puntland’s capital Garowe, expressed frustration with what they perceive as Mogadishu’s high-handed approach.
In the meantime, Prime Minister Abiy’s visit is seen as pivotal.
Both sides are expected to issue a joint communiqué emphasizing cooperation while addressing unresolved issues around maritime access and troop deployments.
Yet the underlying tensions remain unresolved.
“Somalia wants to assert its sovereignty, Ethiopia wants sea access, and the regional states want more autonomy,” Dr. Ibrahim noted.
“Balancing those competing demands will be the real test of diplomacy.”
With shifting alliances and escalating geopolitical stakes in the Horn of Africa, analysts say, the outcome of Thursday’s talks in Mohadishu could significantly influence regional dynamics for years ahead.
