Mogadishu, Somalia – The simmering dispute between Somalia’s Federal Government (FGS) and the semi-autonomous Jubaland region has escalated into a full-blown crisis, as Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe moves forward with plans for regional elections.
The development, viewed by Mogadishu as unconstitutional, underscores the country’s ongoing struggle to balance federal autonomy and national cohesion.
Madobe’s decision to press ahead, despite federal opposition, highlights deep divisions in Somalia’s governance structure.
The standoff has raised fears of renewed instability in a nation already grappling with security challenges, including the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab militants.
Federal Push for Centralized Control
Somalia’s FGS, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has positioned itself as a champion of nationwide democratic reforms. Central to its agenda is the implementation of a one-person, one-vote system—a departure from the clan-based indirect elections that have dominated Somalia’s political landscape for decades.
However, Jubaland’s refusal to adopt this model has put it on a collision course with Mogadishu.
The FGS swiftly rejected Madobe’s appointment of a seven-member electoral commission, describing it as a breach of Somalia’s federal framework.
Officials in Mogadishu argue that allowing Jubaland to proceed with its own elections risks fragmenting the country’s political structure.
“The government’s position is clear: Somalia’s future depends on unity, and rogue elections undermine that vision,” said Hamza Abdi Barre, Somali prime minister in Mogadishu. Mr.Barre served as the head of Jubaland’s state election commission during the 2021 elections, which led to the re-election of Madobe.
There are also reports that Mogadishu is weighing the option of deploying federal troops to Kismayo, Jubaland’s capital, to disrupt Madobe’s plans—a move analysts warn could inflame tensions and trigger violence.
Madobe Holds His Ground
Madobe, a seasoned political operator and former militia leader, has refused to yield to federal pressure. His administration has intensified security measures in Kismayo, reinforcing key installations such as the airport amid fears of federal intervention.
“The people of Jubaland have the right to chart their own political destiny,” Madobe declared during a recent press conference.
“We will not allow external interference to dictate how we govern.”
Madobe’s stance is bolstered by support from regional lawmakers, with over 30 federal parliamentarians from Jubaland recently convening in Kismayo to strategize against what they see as Mogadishu’s overreach. This united front sends a clear signal that Jubaland is prepared for a prolonged standoff with the FGS.
In the meantime, the conflict between Mogadishu and Jubaland is the latest flashpoint in Somalia’s decades-long effort to rebuild its governance structures. The federal model, introduced after the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime in 1991, was intended to distribute power and accommodate the country’s diverse clans and regions. Yet it has often been a source of friction rather than unity.
Jubaland, a strategically vital region bordering Kenya, has long resisted central control. Its leader, Madobe, has maintained close ties with neighbouring countries, which view Jubaland as a buffer against Al-Shabaab.
These relationships have frequently put Madobe at odds with Mogadishu, which accuses neighboring states of meddling in Somalia’s internal affairs.
According to Abdirahman Osman, a Somali political analyst, the crisis underscores the inherent tensions in Somalia’s federal system.
“The central government wants to impose a unified vision, but regions like Jubaland see federalism as a safeguard for their autonomy,” he said.
“This is a clash of fundamentally different interpretations of the federal structure.”
Others warn that the FGS’s heavy-handed approach could backfire.
“Deploying troops or invalidating Jubaland’s elections risks alienating regional leaders and could push Jubaland—and other states—closer to unilateral independence,” said Jamal Gedi, a regional security expert.
Gedi added that the international community must step in to mediate.
“Without dialogue, this standoff could spiral into armed conflict, with devastating consequences for Somalia’s stability.”
Meanwhile, the crisis in Jubaland is not just a domestic issue—it carries significant regional and international implications.
Neighboring countries, such as Kenya and Djibouti which have vested interests in Jubaland’s stability, have historically backed Madobe, viewing him as a critical ally in countering Al-Shabaab.
Djibouti, meanwhile, has often aligned with Mogadishu in efforts to centralize power.
Western donors, including the United States and European Union, have expressed alarm over the escalating tensions.
In a joint statement, they urged both parties to “prioritize dialogue and compromise to prevent further destabilization.”
Somalia’s partners in the African Union (AU) and the United Nations have also voiced concern.
The AU has warned that the political rift could undermine efforts to stabilize the country and jeopardize the fight against Al-Shabaab.
As Jubaland’s election date approaches, the stakes are rising.
Experts say the outcome could set a precedent for how Somalia’s federal government interacts with its regions moving forward.
“The next few weeks will be critical,” said Osman. “If Jubaland succeeds in holding its elections, it will embolden other regions to assert their autonomy. If Mogadishu intervenes militarily, it risks plunging the country into another cycle of conflict.”
For now, the crisis remains a test of Somalia’s fragile federal experiment—a balancing act between autonomy and unity that could determine the nation’s trajectory for years to come.
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