Mogadishu, Somalia — In the corridors of Somalia’s fragile federal system, the political maneuvering of regional leaders is as much about survival as it is about strategy.
The ongoing drawn-out talka between the federal government and regional states in Mogadishu have highlighted the growing tensions between the two sides.
At the heart of this contention lies President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s contentious proposal to extend the terms of federal state leaders, presented under the guise of facilitating future popular elections – an initiative which could significantly shift the power dynamics in a nation grappling with the dual crises of terrorism and political instability.
The situation reached a boiling point when Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe vocally opposed the president’s plan at the crucial summit, unexpectedly rallying support from Puntland, which has experienced strained relations with Jubaland since the 2022 Somalia’s elections.
Amid mounting political friction with the federal government, Puntland, having severed ties with Mogadishu, opted to boycott the summit for a second time, described Madobe’s stance as a courageous defense of the country’s federalism system.
In his bold defiance, Madobe championed the idea of indirect elections instead of endorsing one-year extensions for regional states in return for their backing of the president’s popular elections proposals.
His position has dramatically altered the dynamics within Somalia’s intricate power landscape.
A Deceptive Push for Democracy?
To many observers, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s proposal for popular elections—touted as a democratic advancement—conceals a deeper ambition: extending his political tenure.
While the president has characterized the initiative as a step toward the long-anticipated transition to one-person, one-vote elections, critics assert that Somalia’s current challenges—including ongoing battles with the militant group al-Shabab, entrenched clan rivalries, and the fractured nature of its federal system—render such elections not only unlikely but potentially destabilizing.
“It’s not about democracy; it’s about staying in power,” remarked Ahmed Ali, a political analyst.
“The timing of this proposal—when the country is already on shaky ground—raises serious questions about the president’s true motives.”
Madobe, a seasoned navigator of Somalia’s tumultuous political waters, appears to concur.
His insistence on Puntland’s inclusion in the summit, coupled with his rejection of the term extension plan, reflects a broader resistance against what many perceive as Mogadishu’s expanding overreach.
While the specifics of Madobe’s counterproposals remain vague, his call for immediate elections has established him as a central figure opposing Hassan Sheikh’s agenda.
A Power Play Amid Instability
The stakes are alarmingly high. Somalia’s federal structure, tenuously sustained since its inception, depends heavily on cooperation between the central government and regional states.
A fracture in this delicate alliance could exacerbate the country’s security crisis.
Analysts warn that advancing a controversial term extension could reignite conflict between the federal government and regional administrations, especially in states like Puntland, Southwest, and Jubaland, which maintain considerable autonomy.
Once a staunch ally of Jubaland, Puntland has been closely monitoring the unfolding political drama.
Its endorsement of Madobe’s position underscores a deeper schism within Somalia’s federal framework, as regional leaders increasingly view President Hassan Sheikh’s centralizing tendencies with skepticism.
Simultaneously, the president’s refusal to back down from his term extension proposal for the regional leaders whose legal mandates nearing an end, coupled with his ambitious plan for popular elections—despite escalating domestic opposition—suggests that the coming months may witness an escalation of this political standoff.
Many observers worry that his ambitions for national elections, in a nation struggling to pay public servants and military personnel, which necessitate extensive logistical support, remain largely unattainable.
Thus, concerns mount that political expediency is being prioritized over genuine stability.
Yet, the president’s allies contend that extending terms for federal states is essential for implementing the long-awaited popular vote—a narrative that few find convincing.
“There’s a very real risk that this plan will backfire,” warned Abdinasir Muse, another analyst. “If the president pushes too hard for term extensions, he could provoke a regional revolt.”
Underlying Crisis
In a country where political missteps can yield deadly repercussions, Ahmed Madobe’s resolute opposition to Hassan Sheikh’s plan signifies more than a mere disagreement over elections.
It illuminates the growing fissures within Somalia’s political landscape, as regional leaders assert their autonomy against a president intent on reshaping the system.
The outcome of this power struggle may very well determine the future of Somalia’s fragile federalism—and whether the promise of popular elections will ever materialize.
For now, the impasse between Mogadishu and the regional states continues to fester, paving the way for federal member states to deepen their alliances against what they perceive as the president’s overreach, thereby placing Somalia’s federal structure at a critical juncture.
In the meantime, as tensions simmer, the prospect of deepening alliances among regional states against perceived federal overreach becomes increasingly likely.
Whether President Hassan Sheikh’s gambit will solidify his hold on power or ignite further discord remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the ongoing struggle for authority signifies a pivotal moment in Somalia’s quest for stability and democratic governance.
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