Mogadishu, Somalia — In a country long ravaged by militant insurgency, a new threat is emerging — not from al-Shabab’s battlefield tactics, but from political divisions at the highest levels of government.
The escalating conflict between Somalia’s Federal Government and the Jubaland federal state has diverted critical resources and attention away from the fight against al-Shabab, leaving the extremist group with the breathing room it needs to regroup.
Security experts warn that years of painstaking progress against the insurgents may be at risk of unraveling as federal and regional leaders clash over territorial control and resource allocation.
A Crisis Born of Political Rivalry
At the heart of the crisis is Jubaland, a semi-autonomous region in southern Somalia led by President Ahmed Madobe, a long-time critic of the FGS.
The dispute has been fueled by Mogadishu’s failed military incursion into Raskamboni, a strategic town near the Kenyan border after the recent re-election of Madobe, denounced by FGS ‘illegitimate’, and the government’s renewed focus on the contested Gedo region to open a new battle front against Jubaland.
“This is not just a political crisis,” said Mohamud Moumin, Somali political analyst
“It’s a security crisis with national and regional implications.”
The Federal Government’s push into Jubaland has shifted its military focus away from key counterterrorism priorities, leaving al-Shabab with less resistance in regions where it has been under pressure.
In the vacuum created by political and military distractions, al-Shabab has seized the opportunity to regroup.
According to security officials, the group, an al-Qaeda affiliate, has ramped up its recruitment efforts and consolidated its hold in rural areas while planning high-profile attacks in urban centers.
“Every day that the Federal Government is consumed by its dispute with Jubaland, al-Shabab is growing stronger,” said a former Somali diplomat based in Mogadishu.
“They are reorganizing, adapting, and waiting for the right moment to strike.”
Somalia has spent more than a decade clawing back territory from al-Shabab, with the help of African Union peacekeepers and international allies.
Towns once under the group’s brutal control have been freed, and trade routes have reopened.
But those hard-won gains are now at risk.
Residents in liberated areas fear a return of the militants as a large number of government forces are being redeployed to Gedo, leaving communities exposed.
“We feel like they are going to abandon us soon,” said Sabrie Nur, a community leader in Lower Shabelle region.
“If the soldiers leave, al-Shabab will come back.”
Meanwhile, the crisis is also testing Somalia’s fragile federal system.
The standoff with Jubaland has deepened mistrust between Mogadishu and other regional states, some of which are now questioning the Federal Government’s intentions.
International observers also warn that Somalia’s political divisions could destabilize the broader Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with border conflicts, humanitarian crises, and economic challenges.
This comes amid growing calls for de-escalation and dialogue.
Politicians and elders urge both sides to prioritize national security over political rivalries, with some suggesting international mediation as a way to break the impasse.
“Somalia cannot afford to lose focus on al-Shabab,” said an African Union official familiar with the region.
“The longer this crisis continues, the more entrenched the militants will become.”
For now, Somalia remains at a crossroads. As the Federal Government and Jubaland continue their standoff, the militants are the ones gaining ground — and the consequences could be felt far beyond Somalia’s borders.
