Mogadishu, Somalia—Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent visit to Azerbaijan, where he toured military manufacturing sites, energy facilities, and elite commando bases, has sparked intense debate over his strategic ambitions.
The trip, coming on the heels of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to Mogadishu, has sparked speculation that Mohamud may be examining Aliyev’s governance model—one characterized by a family-centered administration and a tightly controlled security apparatus.
Experts say the visit signals more than routine diplomacy.
“Mohamud’s interest in Azerbaijan’s military and economic models suggests he is exploring ways to strengthen his hold on power, particularly amid Somalia’s ongoing crisis sparked by the controversial constitutional changes and security restructuring,” said a regional analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Military and Security Interests
Azerbaijan has built a formidable defense industry, backed by Turkish and Israeli military technology.
Somalia, still battling Al-Shabab and internal power struggles, has been seeking ways to modernize its military.
Experts suggest that Mohamud’s visit to Azerbaijan’s elite commando forces and advanced weaponry exhibition could signal a potential shift in Somalia’s defense partnerships.
“Given Turkey’s deep involvement in Somalia’s military, the Azerbaijani model could serve as an extension of that alliance,” said geopolitical expert Dr. Ahmed Nur.
“Mohamud may be looking for ways to create a more centralized and loyal security structure—something Aliyev has mastered.”
Another key stop on Mohamud’s tour in Azerbaijan was BP’s Sangachal Terminal, a major global hub for oil and natural gas exports.
Somalia, with its untapped offshore reserves, is eager to enter the energy market. However, the country faces legal disputes over resource ownership between the federal government and regional states.
“Azerbaijan’s model of energy centralization is attractive, but Somalia’s clan-based governance makes direct replication difficult,” said energy consultant Jamal Nur.
“in that case, Mohamud may be trying to position himself as the key broker in Somalia’s future energy deals.”
The Somali president’s state visit has also sparked wider speculation about the influence of his Azerbaijani counterpart’s governance style on his own approach.
Aliyev’s governance is notable for its familial influence.
His wife serves as vice president, and their daughter holds a key financial role, the country’s auditor general overseeing the finances.
Trusted inner circle?
Fueling further suspicions, Mohamud has already placed his daughter in a senior foreign affairs advisory position, prompting speculation that he may be shaping a similar power structure.
“Somalia’s decentralized, clan-driven politics make it unlikely that Mohamud could replicate Aliyev’s family-dominated rule,” said political analyst, based in Mogadishu.
“But we may see further moves toward consolidating power within trusted inner circles.”
Meanwhile, the Somali president’s visit also comes as tensions rise in the Horn of Africa, particularly over Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access.
Azerbaijan, having navigated regional power struggles in the Caucasus, may offer strategic lessons for Somalia’s positioning in the region.
“The visit signals Somalia’s intent to diversify its alliances beyond traditional partners like EU and the U.S.,” said one foreign diplomat based in Mogadishu who insisted on anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
“If Somalia seeks military and economic ties with Azerbaijan, it could provoke reactions from Gulf states and Ethiopia.”
What’s Next?
While Somalia lacks the centralized state apparatus of Azerbaijan, Mohamud’s visit suggests he is studying elements of Aliyev’s playbook—particularly in military modernization, energy diplomacy, and political consolidation.
However, any attempt to concentrate power too aggressively could backfire, triggering resistance from Somalia’s political elite and regional stakeholders, experts say.
According to one former Somali diplomat, Mohamud’s next steps in Mogadishu will determine whether this visit was symbolic or a calculated move toward reshaping Somalia’s governance model.
