Nairobi , Kenya – The United Nations Security Council is expected to renew sanctions on Al-Shabab before they expire on February 28, 2025, as the militant group remains a significant threat to Somalia’s stability and regional security.
The measures, originally imposed to disrupt Al-Shabab’s financing and operational capabilities, will continue to target illicit trade networks, external funding sources, and arms procurement routes.
Security analysts say the renewal reflects growing concerns over Al-Shabab’s adaptability, with the group expanding its financial operations beyond Somalia’s borders.
The extremist group has reportedly strengthened its involvement in regional smuggling networks, including illicit gold trade and taxation in territories under its control.
The Security Council is also set to review the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE), which provides intelligence and monitoring support for the Al-Shabab Sanctions Committee.
The panel’s current term, extended by Resolution 2762 (2024) in December, is due to expire on March 31, 2025.
Western nations argue that the panel’s work remains essential, while some African Union (AU) members are pushing for a more localized, intelligence-driven approach to counterterrorism efforts.
The Geopolitical Divide
The renewal of sanctions comes as Somalia undergoes a critical security transition, with the gradual withdrawal of African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces..
Western diplomats insist that the sanctions regime is crucial in maintaining pressure on Al-Shabab, preventing the group from regaining territorial influence amid the shifting security environment.
However, some African nations are advocating for a broader strategy beyond financial restrictions, emphasizing the need for economic investments, local governance reforms, and reconciliation initiatives.
“While sanctions help curb Al-Shabab’s external financing, a purely military and financial approach has limits,” said a senior AU diplomat, who requested anonymity.
“There must be a parallel effort to address the socio-economic grievances that fuel extremism.”
As the vote nears, discussions are expected to center on whether current measures are effective in countering Al-Shabab’s evolving tactics or if adjustments are necessary to align with Somalia’s shifting political and security landscape.
If passed, the renewed sanctions will reinforce the international community’s stance against Al-Shabab, but questions remain on whether additional economic and governance support will be incorporated into broader stabilization efforts.
With the AU preparing to finalize Somalia’s post-ATMIS security framework, and Al-Shabab continuing to exploit governance gaps, experts say, the Security Council’s decision will serve as a litmus test for how the international community plans to engage in Somalia’s long-term stability.
